Rolling periods, 1972 to 2025

Each portfolio's rolling return, and how bumpy the ride was

Each cell is one rolling period, shaded by its annualised return on a graded scale: green for gains, deepening with the move, and orange through red to vivid purple for losses, deepening with the size of the move. The top five rows are the building blocks on their own, the S&P 500, ten-year Treasuries, gold, cash, and inflation (in gold); below the gap are the 20 portfolios in three families: sixteen where gold is a minority holding (60/40 down to 45/25/30), two equal-weight (the one-third-each and the Permanent Portfolio), and two where gold is the largest holding (30/30/40 and 20/40/40). The separated column on the right is the full 1972 to 2025 record. Switch to Real to strip out inflation. Hover any cell for the detail.

Source: annual total returns for the S&P 500, ten-year US Treasury bonds, gold and three-month US Treasury bills, Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern; real returns deflated by US consumer prices (CPIAUCSL, FRED). Each cell is the annualised return over that rolling period, calculated as the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), not a simple arithmetic average, so it is lower than the average of the yearly returns; the box also shows the cumulative return. The right-hand column is the full 1972 to 2025 record. Portfolios are rebalanced to their target weights each year. One historical record, not a forecast.